Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
